{
  "as_of": "2026-07-24",
  "commentary": [
    "Overall regime: Watchful (35.29/100). This is a percentile-based conditions score, not a forecast.",
    "VVIX is 100.73 at its trailing percentile 69; its 5-session direction is mixed.",
    "The constant-maturity 30-to-60-day VIX curve slope is +4.05%; its direction is improving and positive still means contango.",
    "Credit is 2.77% and mixed; MOVE is 70.88. SKEW remains a low-weight confirm, not a standalone forecast. Stale inputs receive zero weight: MOVE."
  ],
  "comparison_start": "2024-07-24",
  "conditional_frequencies": {
    "horizons": [
      21,
      42
    ],
    "targets": {
      "spy_drawdown_5": {
        "21": {
          "bands": {
            "Contained": {
              "events": 156,
              "frequency": 10.77,
              "observations": 1448
            },
            "Elevated": {
              "events": 159,
              "frequency": 23.08,
              "observations": 689
            },
            "Watchful": {
              "events": 161,
              "frequency": 18.9,
              "observations": 852
            }
          },
          "events": 476,
          "frequency": 15.93,
          "observations": 2989
        },
        "42": {
          "bands": {
            "Contained": {
              "events": 274,
              "frequency": 19.16,
              "observations": 1430
            },
            "Elevated": {
              "events": 223,
              "frequency": 32.37,
              "observations": 689
            },
            "Watchful": {
              "events": 234,
              "frequency": 27.56,
              "observations": 849
            }
          },
          "events": 731,
          "frequency": 24.63,
          "observations": 2968
        }
      },
      "vix_above_25": {
        "21": {
          "bands": {
            "Contained": {
              "events": 255,
              "frequency": 17.61,
              "observations": 1448
            },
            "Elevated": {
              "events": 390,
              "frequency": 56.6,
              "observations": 689
            },
            "Watchful": {
              "events": 317,
              "frequency": 37.21,
              "observations": 852
            }
          },
          "events": 962,
          "frequency": 32.18,
          "observations": 2989
        },
        "42": {
          "bands": {
            "Contained": {
              "events": 468,
              "frequency": 32.73,
              "observations": 1430
            },
            "Elevated": {
              "events": 444,
              "frequency": 64.44,
              "observations": 689
            },
            "Watchful": {
              "events": 432,
              "frequency": 50.88,
              "observations": 849
            }
          },
          "events": 1344,
          "frequency": 45.28,
          "observations": 2968
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "current": {
    "bands": {
      "move": "Calm",
      "skew": "Elevated",
      "vix": "Moderate",
      "vvix": "Elevated"
    },
    "context_metrics": {
      "vix": {
        "age_sessions": 0,
        "change_20d": -0.31,
        "change_5d": -0.19,
        "direction": "improving",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-24",
        "percentile": 73.35,
        "risk_percentile": 73.35,
        "source_date": "2026-07-24",
        "stale": false,
        "value": 18.58
      },
      "vix9d_vix": {
        "age_sessions": 5,
        "change_20d": -0.1126,
        "change_5d": 0.1559,
        "direction": "mixed",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-17",
        "percentile": 36.18,
        "risk_percentile": 36.18,
        "source_date": "2026-07-17",
        "stale": true,
        "value": 0.8977
      },
      "vix_vix3m": {
        "age_sessions": 5,
        "change_20d": 0.0195,
        "change_5d": 0.1044,
        "direction": "deteriorating",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-17",
        "percentile": 67.72,
        "risk_percentile": 67.72,
        "source_date": "2026-07-17",
        "stale": true,
        "value": 0.9138
      }
    },
    "curve_as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "curve_band": "Contango",
    "curve_cm30": 19.3387,
    "curve_cm60": 20.1228,
    "curve_slope_percent": 4.0544,
    "curve_spread": 0.7541,
    "curve_spread_percent": 3.921,
    "dates": {
      "move": "2026-07-17",
      "skew": "2026-07-24",
      "vix": "2026-07-24",
      "vvix": "2026-07-24"
    },
    "hy_oas": 2.77,
    "hy_oas_as_of": "2026-07-23",
    "hy_oas_available_as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "m1": 19.231,
    "m2": 19.9851,
    "metrics": {
      "curve": {
        "age_sessions": 0,
        "change_20d": 0.1001,
        "change_5d": 0.5193,
        "direction": "improving",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-24",
        "percentile": 37.3,
        "risk_percentile": 62.7,
        "source_date": "2026-07-24",
        "stale": false,
        "value": 4.0544
      },
      "hy_oas": {
        "age_sessions": 0,
        "change_20d": -0.01,
        "change_5d": 0.06,
        "direction": "mixed",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-23",
        "percentile": 17.13,
        "risk_percentile": 17.13,
        "source_date": "2026-07-24",
        "stale": false,
        "value": 2.77
      },
      "move": {
        "age_sessions": 5,
        "change_20d": 0.22,
        "change_5d": 1.33,
        "direction": "deteriorating",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-17",
        "percentile": 13.89,
        "risk_percentile": 13.89,
        "source_date": "2026-07-17",
        "stale": true,
        "value": 70.88
      },
      "skew": {
        "age_sessions": 0,
        "change_20d": 7.39,
        "change_5d": 0.0,
        "direction": "mixed",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-24",
        "percentile": 61.04,
        "risk_percentile": 61.04,
        "source_date": "2026-07-24",
        "stale": false,
        "value": 147.28
      },
      "vvix": {
        "age_sessions": 0,
        "change_20d": 9.54,
        "change_5d": -4.14,
        "direction": "mixed",
        "observation_date": "2026-07-24",
        "percentile": 68.72,
        "risk_percentile": 68.72,
        "source_date": "2026-07-24",
        "stale": false,
        "value": 100.73
      }
    },
    "move": 70.88,
    "skew": 147.28,
    "vix": 18.58,
    "vvix": 100.73
  },
  "curve": [
    {
      "expiration": null,
      "label": "Spot",
      "value": 18.58
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2026-08-19",
      "label": "M1",
      "value": 19.231
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2026-09-16",
      "label": "M2",
      "value": 19.9851
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2026-10-21",
      "label": "M3",
      "value": 20.7883
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2026-11-18",
      "label": "M4",
      "value": 21.0986
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2026-12-16",
      "label": "M5",
      "value": 21.1527
    },
    {
      "expiration": "2027-01-20",
      "label": "M6",
      "value": 22.151
    }
  ],
  "gate_policy": {
    "elevated_action": "gate",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 21,
            "monotonic": true
          },
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 42,
            "monotonic": true
          }
        ],
        "qualifies": true,
        "target": "vix_above_25"
      },
      {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 21,
            "monotonic": true
          },
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 42,
            "monotonic": true
          }
        ],
        "qualifies": true,
        "target": "spy_drawdown_5"
      }
    ],
    "hard_gate_enabled": true,
    "reason": "At least one frozen target separates monotonically and exceeds base rate at both horizons.",
    "watchful_action": "annotate_half_size"
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-07-24T16:15:00-04:00",
  "history": {
    "score": [
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-05",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 0.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-06",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 0.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-09",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 0.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-10",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-11",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-12",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-13",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-16",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-17",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-18",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-19",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-20",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-23",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-24",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-25",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-26",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-27",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-06-30",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-01",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-02",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-03",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-07",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-08",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-09",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-10",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-11",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-14",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-15",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-16",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-17",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-21",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-22",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-23",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-24",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-25",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-28",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-29",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 23.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-30",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-07-31",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-01",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-04",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-05",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-06",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-07",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-08",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-11",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 33.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-12",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 33.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-13",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-14",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 23.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-15",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-18",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-19",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-20",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-21",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-22",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-25",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-26",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-27",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-28",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-08-29",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-02",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 23.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-03",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 33.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-04",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 16.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-05",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-08",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 6.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-09",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-10",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-11",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 40.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-12",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-15",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-16",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 26.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-17",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 30.0
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-18",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 13.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-22",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 46.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-23",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 56.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-24",
        "regime": "Contained",
        "score": 23.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-25",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-26",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-29",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 73.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-09-30",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-01",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-02",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-03",
        "regime": "Watchful",
        "score": 33.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-06",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 56.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-07",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-08",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 66.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-09",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-10",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-13",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-14",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-15",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 86.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-16",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 93.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-17",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 93.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-20",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-21",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-22",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-23",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 83.33
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-24",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 86.67
      },
      {
        "active_maximum": 75,
        "date": "2014-10-27",
        "regime": "Elevated",
        "score": 76.67
      },
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        "value": 678.27
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-10",
        "value": 677.18
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-11",
        "value": 676.33
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-12",
        "value": 666.06
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-13",
        "value": 662.29
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      {
        "date": "2026-03-16",
        "value": 669.03
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-17",
        "value": 670.79
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-18",
        "value": 661.43
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-19",
        "value": 659.8
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-20",
        "value": 648.57
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-23",
        "value": 655.38
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-24",
        "value": 653.18
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-25",
        "value": 656.82
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-26",
        "value": 645.09
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-27",
        "value": 634.09
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-30",
        "value": 631.97
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-31",
        "value": 650.34
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-01",
        "value": 655.24
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-02",
        "value": 655.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-06",
        "value": 658.93
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-07",
        "value": 659.22
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-08",
        "value": 676.01
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-09",
        "value": 679.91
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-10",
        "value": 679.46
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-13",
        "value": 686.1
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-14",
        "value": 694.46
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-15",
        "value": 699.94
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-16",
        "value": 701.66
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
        "value": 710.14
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-20",
        "value": 708.72
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-21",
        "value": 704.08
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-22",
        "value": 711.21
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-23",
        "value": 708.45
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "value": 713.94
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-27",
        "value": 715.17
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-28",
        "value": 711.69
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-29",
        "value": 711.58
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        "date": "2026-04-30",
        "value": 718.66
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "value": 720.65
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        "date": "2026-05-04",
        "value": 718.01
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        "date": "2026-05-05",
        "value": 723.77
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        "date": "2026-05-06",
        "value": 733.83
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        "date": "2026-05-07",
        "value": 731.58
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "value": 737.62
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-11",
        "value": 739.3
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-12",
        "value": 738.18
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-13",
        "value": 742.31
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-14",
        "value": 748.17
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "value": 739.17
      },
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        "date": "2026-05-18",
        "value": 738.65
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        "date": "2026-05-19",
        "value": 733.73
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-20",
        "value": 741.25
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        "date": "2026-05-21",
        "value": 742.72
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "value": 745.64
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-26",
        "value": 750.59
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        "date": "2026-05-27",
        "value": 750.46
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-28",
        "value": 754.6
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "value": 756.48
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-01",
        "value": 758.54
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-02",
        "value": 759.57
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-03",
        "value": 754.24
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-04",
        "value": 757.09
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "value": 737.55
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-08",
        "value": 739.22
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-09",
        "value": 737.05
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-10",
        "value": 725.43
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-11",
        "value": 737.76
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 741.75
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-15",
        "value": 754.83
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-16",
        "value": 750.33
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-17",
        "value": 740.96
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-18",
        "value": 746.74
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-22",
        "value": 744.39
      },
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        "date": "2026-06-23",
        "value": 733.58
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-24",
        "value": 733.24
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-25",
        "value": 734.3
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 728.99
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-29",
        "value": 741.0
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        "date": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 746.77
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-01",
        "value": 745.76
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "value": 744.78
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        "date": "2026-07-06",
        "value": 751.28
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-07",
        "value": 747.71
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-08",
        "value": 745.4
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-09",
        "value": 751.71
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 754.95
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-13",
        "value": 749.17
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-14",
        "value": 751.83
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-15",
        "value": 754.81
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-16",
        "value": 750.72
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 743.29
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      {
        "date": "2026-07-20",
        "value": 742.09
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-21",
        "value": 748.28
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-22",
        "value": 747.41
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-23",
        "value": 738.18
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 738.93
      }
    ],
    "vix_spikes": [
      {
        "end": "2014-10-16",
        "start": "2014-10-15"
      },
      {
        "end": "2015-09-04",
        "start": "2015-08-21"
      },
      {
        "end": "2015-09-09",
        "start": "2015-09-09"
      },
      {
        "end": "2015-09-29",
        "start": "2015-09-28"
      },
      {
        "end": "2016-01-08",
        "start": "2016-01-08"
      },
      {
        "end": "2016-01-21",
        "start": "2016-01-13"
      },
      {
        "end": "2016-02-12",
        "start": "2016-02-08"
      },
      {
        "end": "2016-06-24",
        "start": "2016-06-24"
      },
      {
        "end": "2018-02-12",
        "start": "2018-02-05"
      },
      {
        "end": "2018-10-24",
        "start": "2018-10-24"
      },
      {
        "end": "2019-01-03",
        "start": "2018-12-18"
      },
      {
        "end": "2020-07-17",
        "start": "2020-02-24"
      },
      {
        "end": "2020-07-28",
        "start": "2020-07-23"
      },
      {
        "end": "2020-11-12",
        "start": "2020-08-31"
      },
      {
        "end": "2020-12-21",
        "start": "2020-12-21"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-01-06",
        "start": "2021-01-04"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-02-02",
        "start": "2021-01-27"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-02-26",
        "start": "2021-02-25"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-03-08",
        "start": "2021-03-03"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-05-12",
        "start": "2021-05-12"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-09-20",
        "start": "2021-09-20"
      },
      {
        "end": "2021-12-06",
        "start": "2021-11-26"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-01-28",
        "start": "2022-01-20"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-03-17",
        "start": "2022-02-11"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-06-01",
        "start": "2022-04-22"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-07-18",
        "start": "2022-06-06"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-09-06",
        "start": "2022-08-26"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-11-03",
        "start": "2022-09-13"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-11-09",
        "start": "2022-11-08"
      },
      {
        "end": "2022-12-12",
        "start": "2022-12-12"
      },
      {
        "end": "2023-03-17",
        "start": "2023-03-13"
      },
      {
        "end": "2024-08-07",
        "start": "2024-08-05"
      },
      {
        "end": "2024-12-18",
        "start": "2024-12-18"
      },
      {
        "end": "2025-03-11",
        "start": "2025-03-10"
      },
      {
        "end": "2025-04-28",
        "start": "2025-04-03"
      },
      {
        "end": "2025-10-16",
        "start": "2025-10-16"
      },
      {
        "end": "2025-11-20",
        "start": "2025-11-20"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "start": "2026-03-06"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-03-31",
        "start": "2026-03-18"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-04-07",
        "start": "2026-04-07"
      }
    ]
  },
  "history_start": "2013-01-01",
  "market_regime": {
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "bottom_line": "Market plumbing is healthy, but leadership, momentum, or cyclicals are soft enough to keep the overall stance neutral.",
    "counts": {
      "neutral": 0,
      "risk_off": 2,
      "risk_on": 3
    },
    "label": "Neutral",
    "lean": "leaning risk-on",
    "method": "Five deterministic pillars: long-term trend, breadth, credit, short-term leadership, and rates/cyclicals. Three or two risk-on pillars can still be Neutral when two pillars actively disagree.",
    "metrics": {
      "dgs10": {
        "one_month_change_bps": 21.0,
        "value": 4.71
      },
      "equities": {
        "hyg": {
          "close": 79.23,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -2.4,
          "one_month_percent": -0.78,
          "three_month_percent": -1.42,
          "vs_200dma_percent": -1.3,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -0.68,
          "ytd_percent": -1.79
        },
        "iwm": {
          "close": 291.17,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -3.09,
          "one_month_percent": -1.86,
          "three_month_percent": 5.68,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 10.02,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -0.01,
          "ytd_percent": 17.04
        },
        "qqq": {
          "close": 684.23,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -8.3,
          "one_month_percent": -3.71,
          "three_month_percent": 5.04,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 6.38,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -4.74,
          "ytd_percent": 11.6
        },
        "rsp": {
          "close": 213.57,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -0.69,
          "one_month_percent": 1.52,
          "three_month_percent": 5.49,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 7.34,
          "vs_50dma_percent": 1.67,
          "ytd_percent": 10.74
        },
        "smh": {
          "close": 561.19,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -16.1,
          "one_month_percent": -9.33,
          "three_month_percent": 16.47,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 25.92,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -6.29,
          "ytd_percent": 50.33
        },
        "spy": {
          "close": 738.93,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -2.72,
          "one_month_percent": 0.78,
          "three_month_percent": 4.3,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 5.78,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -0.82,
          "ytd_percent": 8.16
        },
        "tlt": {
          "close": 83.25,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -8.34,
          "one_month_percent": -4.73,
          "three_month_percent": -3.81,
          "vs_200dma_percent": -4.78,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -2.15,
          "ytd_percent": -4.34
        },
        "xlp": {
          "close": 84.13,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -6.53,
          "one_month_percent": -0.37,
          "three_month_percent": 0.78,
          "vs_200dma_percent": 2.4,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -0.05,
          "ytd_percent": 8.29
        },
        "xly": {
          "close": 109.41,
          "date": "2026-07-24",
          "from_ytd_high_percent": -12.13,
          "one_month_percent": -4.92,
          "three_month_percent": -7.07,
          "vs_200dma_percent": -6.64,
          "vs_50dma_percent": -6.11,
          "ytd_percent": -7.55
        }
      },
      "relative_strength": {
        "hyg_tlt_1m_percent": 4.15,
        "iwm_spy_3m_percent": 1.31,
        "rsp_spy_1m_percent": 0.73,
        "xly_xlp_3m_percent": -7.79
      }
    },
    "pillars": [
      {
        "detail": "SPY +5.8%, QQQ +6.4%, and IWM +10.0% versus their 200-day averages.",
        "name": "Trend",
        "signal": "risk_on"
      },
      {
        "detail": "RSP/SPY is +0.7% over one month; IWM/SPY is +1.3% over three months.",
        "name": "Breadth",
        "signal": "risk_on"
      },
      {
        "detail": "High-yield OAS is 2.77%; HYG/TLT is +4.2% over one month.",
        "name": "Credit",
        "signal": "risk_on"
      },
      {
        "detail": "SPY is -0.8% and QQQ -4.7% versus 50-day averages; SMH is -16.1% from its YTD high.",
        "name": "Momentum",
        "signal": "risk_off"
      },
      {
        "detail": "The 10-year yield is 4.71% (+21 bp over about one month); XLY/XLP is -7.8% over three months.",
        "name": "Rates / cyclicals",
        "signal": "risk_off"
      }
    ],
    "rating": 6,
    "source_dates": {
      "cboe_curve": "2026-07-24",
      "dgs10": "2026-07-23",
      "hy_oas": "2026-07-23",
      "yahoo": "2026-07-24"
    },
    "why": [
      "SPY +5.8%, QQQ +6.4%, and IWM +10.0% versus their 200-day averages.",
      "RSP/SPY is +0.7% over one month; IWM/SPY is +1.3% over three months.",
      "High-yield OAS is 2.77%; HYG/TLT is +4.2% over one month.",
      "SPY is -0.8% and QQQ -4.7% versus 50-day averages; SMH is -16.1% from its YTD high.",
      "The 10-year yield is 4.71% (+21 bp over about one month); XLY/XLP is -7.8% over three months."
    ]
  },
  "method": "The Conditions Score uses trailing three-year empirical percentiles, a constant-maturity 30-to-60-day VIX futures slope where a positive slope means contango, lagged credit, and zero weight for stale inputs. It is a falsifiable conditions heuristic, not a calibrated probability or trading signal.",
  "model_status": {
    "endpoints_passed": 0,
    "endpoints_total": 4,
    "evaluation_digest": "f9bb7ec3ffb1",
    "evaluation_url": "/trading/risk-evaluation.json",
    "live_probabilities": null,
    "message": "Fitted probabilities are withheld because at least one frozen endpoint failed the persistence gauntlet.",
    "reasons": [
      "vix_above_25 21d: minimum_improvement, positive_and_calm_balance",
      "vix_above_25 42d: minimum_improvement, bootstrap_probability_at_least_0_80, leave_one_positive_episode_out, positive_and_calm_balance",
      "spy_drawdown_5 21d: beats_best_baseline, minimum_improvement, bootstrap_probability_at_least_0_80, leave_one_positive_episode_out, positive_and_calm_balance",
      "spy_drawdown_5 42d: beats_best_baseline, minimum_improvement, bootstrap_probability_at_least_0_80, leave_one_positive_episode_out"
    ],
    "scores": [
      {
        "best_baseline": "vix_percentile",
        "best_baseline_brier": 0.13620876,
        "horizon": 21,
        "model_brier": 0.13400934,
        "passed": false,
        "target": "vix_above_25"
      },
      {
        "best_baseline": "vix_percentile",
        "best_baseline_brier": 0.15132911,
        "horizon": 42,
        "model_brier": 0.15106409,
        "passed": false,
        "target": "vix_above_25"
      },
      {
        "best_baseline": "unconditional",
        "best_baseline_brier": 0.11332641,
        "horizon": 21,
        "model_brier": 0.1146762,
        "passed": false,
        "target": "spy_drawdown_5"
      },
      {
        "best_baseline": "unconditional",
        "best_baseline_brier": 0.12235676,
        "horizon": 42,
        "model_brier": 0.1236359,
        "passed": false,
        "target": "spy_drawdown_5"
      }
    ],
    "status": "withheld"
  },
  "period": "YTD",
  "scanner_policy": {
    "as_of": "2026-07-24",
    "elevated_action": "gate",
    "elevated_hard_gate_enabled": true,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 21,
            "monotonic": true
          },
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 42,
            "monotonic": true
          }
        ],
        "qualifies": true,
        "target": "vix_above_25"
      },
      {
        "horizons": [
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 21,
            "monotonic": true
          },
          {
            "elevated_above_base": true,
            "horizon": 42,
            "monotonic": true
          }
        ],
        "qualifies": true,
        "target": "spy_drawdown_5"
      }
    ],
    "schema_version": 1,
    "stage": "risk_v2_stage2",
    "stage1_bands_separate_from_unconditional_base_rate": true,
    "watchful_action": "annotate_half_size"
  },
  "schema_version": 2,
  "scorable_start": "2014-06-05",
  "score": {
    "active_maximum": 85,
    "components": {
      "curve": {
        "active": true,
        "maximum": 29.41,
        "points": 14.71,
        "raw_maximum": 25,
        "raw_points": 12.5,
        "risk_percentile": 62.7,
        "stale": false
      },
      "hy_oas": {
        "active": true,
        "maximum": 29.41,
        "points": 0.0,
        "raw_maximum": 25,
        "raw_points": 0.0,
        "risk_percentile": 17.13,
        "stale": false
      },
      "move": {
        "active": false,
        "maximum": 0.0,
        "points": 0.0,
        "raw_maximum": 15,
        "raw_points": 0.0,
        "risk_percentile": 13.89,
        "stale": true
      },
      "skew": {
        "active": true,
        "maximum": 11.76,
        "points": 5.88,
        "raw_maximum": 10,
        "raw_points": 5.0,
        "risk_percentile": 61.04,
        "stale": false
      },
      "vvix": {
        "active": true,
        "maximum": 29.42,
        "points": 14.7,
        "raw_maximum": 25,
        "raw_points": 12.5,
        "risk_percentile": 68.72,
        "stale": false
      }
    },
    "label": "Watchful",
    "rules": [
      "Each metric is ranked against its prior 756 available observations; today's value is excluded.",
      "Risk percentile <60 = 0, 60\u201385 = half weight, >85 = full weight.",
      "Weights: VVIX 25, constant-maturity curve 25, MOVE 15, SKEW 10, HY OAS 25.",
      "Inputs older than two completed VIX sessions receive zero weight; active weights normalize to 100.",
      "Regime: <25 Contained, 25\u201349 Watchful, 50+ Elevated."
    ],
    "total": 35.29
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        "value": 100.63
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "value": 93.82
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-15",
        "value": 87.58
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-16",
        "value": 87.69
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-17",
        "value": 94.53
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-18",
        "value": 88.43
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-22",
        "value": 91.72
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-23",
        "value": 99.5
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-24",
        "value": 95.58
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-25",
        "value": 91.19
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "value": 89.02
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-29",
        "value": 88.71
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-30",
        "value": 86.87
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-01",
        "value": 89.04
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-02",
        "value": 88.8
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-06",
        "value": 87.09
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-07",
        "value": 87.9
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-08",
        "value": 91.38
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-09",
        "value": 88.78
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "value": 87.28
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-13",
        "value": 95.28
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-14",
        "value": 93.53
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-15",
        "value": 91.85
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-16",
        "value": 97.31
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "value": 104.87
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-20",
        "value": 102.82
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-21",
        "value": 96.34
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-22",
        "value": 95.55
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-23",
        "value": 102.17
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "value": 100.73
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": {
    "credit": "FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 shifted to next completed session for T+1 availability",
    "futures": "Cboe official VX monthly contract settlement files (detailed archive begins 2013)",
    "indices": "Yahoo Finance daily closes for volatility indexes plus SPY, QQQ, IWM, RSP, HYG, TLT, XLY, XLP, and SMH",
    "rates": "FRED DGS10 Treasury constant-maturity yield"
  },
  "thresholds": {
    "display_only": true,
    "move": [
      80,
      100
    ],
    "skew": [
      130,
      145
    ],
    "vix": [
      15,
      20,
      25
    ],
    "vvix": [
      90,
      110
    ]
  },
  "windows": {
    "vix_spikes": [
      {
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "start": "2026-03-06"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-03-31",
        "start": "2026-03-18"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-04-07",
        "start": "2026-04-07"
      }
    ],
    "vvix_high": [
      {
        "end": "2026-01-20",
        "start": "2026-01-20"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-02-05",
        "start": "2026-02-05"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "start": "2026-02-12"
      },
      {
        "end": "2026-04-08",
        "start": "2026-02-19"
      }
    ]
  },
  "year": 2026
}