TL;DR — trade log, July 22

Three trades open — ABT, HOOD, and V. Why I’m in each one, where they stand, and what would make me get out.

  • ABT: just climbed back above its key price levels. Healthy so far, but half my reason for buying hasn’t come true yet.
  • HOOD: my strongest chart. Big test on July 29 when they report earnings.
  • V: my steadiest chart. Reports July 28.

I’m writing these down so I can check later whether my reasoning was any good. Live positions are always on the trading page. NFA — not financial advice.

New habit: every time I put on a trade, I write down why — in plain English — and then let the next few weeks grade my homework. This is entry one.

How to read the charts below. There are two lines on each one. The purple line is the average price everyone has paid for the stock since its last earnings report. The gray dashed line is the average price everyone has paid this year. That’s it. When the stock is above both lines, most owners are making money, so they tend to buy the dips and hold. When it’s below them, most owners are losing money, so every bounce runs into people selling just to break even. Above the lines = tailwind. Below = headwind.

ABT: half a thesis, freshly tested

Why I bought: two reasons. One, healthcare stocks looked like they were heating up. Two, ABT had just climbed back above both of its lines after a good earnings report. I bought shares, plus a January 2027 call option as a slower, bigger-payoff version of the same idea.

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ABT this year. Fell hard, based out, then jumped back above both lines after the July 16 earnings report. The purple line just formed — this trend is only a week old.

Where it stands: the price part of my thesis is working. ABT even dipped below the purple line for exactly one day this week — and buyers immediately pushed it back up. That’s a good sign: the level is real, people defend it. The sector part hasn’t come true yet, though. Healthcare keeps almost becoming one of the hottest sectors and then not quite making it:

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The healthcare sector fund (XLV) vs its year-average price. Recovering, recently back above the dashed line — but not yet a leader. My “healthcare is hot” premise is still a forecast, not a fact.

My exit rules, written down in advance: if ABT spends about a week back under $100, the momentum idea is wrong and I’m out of the shares. If it closes below roughly $99 — the year-average line — the whole idea is dead, no debate. Those levels are less than 2% below today’s price, which is the point: I got in early, so being wrong is cheap. No earnings until October, so this one has months to prove itself.

HOOD: strong chart, big test next week

Why I bought: financial stocks are the strongest group in the market right now, and Robinhood is the growth story inside that group. On top of that, their blockchain business is collecting fees at a fast-growing clip, and I think the onchain/agentic-commerce story has room to run. Shares plus a January 2027 call.

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Robinhood Chain daily fees since its May launch: from roughly nothing to about $250K per day. Data: DefiLlama. This is the “collecting fees fast” part of the thesis, in one picture.
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HOOD this year. Above the purple line for 38 straight trading days, sitting about 16% above it. Most owners are comfortably in profit.

Where it stands: the chart is the healthiest thing I own. Two honest worries, though. First, HOOD is moving with the market, not faster than it — for a “leader in a hot sector” story, I’d like to see it actually lead. Second, crypto prices themselves are having a rough year, so the fee-growth story has to work on its own merits, not on a crypto boom.

The test: earnings on July 29. That report either backs up the fee story or it doesn’t. The 16% cushion buys room for a wobble — not immunity from a bad answer.

V: the boring one that works

Why I bought: same big idea as HOOD — financials are leading the market — expressed through the steadiest possible name. Visa just collects a toll on the world’s payments. Shares plus a January 2027 call.

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V this year. Above the purple line for 24 days and above the year-average line every single day for the past month. Nothing dramatic ever happens on this chart. That’s the appeal.
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The financials sector fund (XLF) vs its year-average price. Comfortably above the dashed line — this is what a genuinely strong sector looks like, and it’s the engine behind both HOOD and V.

Where it stands: deepest, calmest uptrend in my book. It cooled off slightly with the market this week — a pause, not a problem. Reports July 28, the day before HOOD.

What I’m taking away

  • I really only have two ideas, not three. HOOD and V are both the same bet — “financials stay hot” — wearing different jerseys. That’s fine, but I have to size them as one bet. Pretending they diversify each other would be lying to myself.
  • Next week grades my homework fast. V reports July 28, HOOD July 29. My two biggest positions get tested within 48 hours. I want to decide what I’ll do with each outcome before those days, not at 4:05pm while staring at a red number.
  • New trends get small bets. Proven trends earn bigger ones. ABT’s trend is a week old; V’s is a month old. They shouldn’t be sized the same, and writing this down is how I catch myself when they drift.

That’s the log. The next entry basically writes itself after next week’s earnings. Positions and levels stay published on the trading page.

Disclosure (NFA): Not financial advice. I hold positions in ABT, HOOD, and V (shares and call options) as described above, and I may buy or sell any of them without updating this post. This is a personal trading journal — me showing my work, not recommending it. Do your own research.