Always do your own research.
Borrowed conviction is exit liquidity — the whales’ castoffs beat their picks by 7 points. Receipts
Mentality
Rules earned from receipts, not motivational wallpaper. Read these before taking risk.
How much is your thinking already priced in?
If the story has a date and a crowd, the move already happened. Ask what you know that the price doesn’t. HIMS, −11%
Patience
You will not buy the bottom or sell the top.
For thesis positions, build and exit in tranches instead of chasing perfect timing. The exception is momentum: when the trigger fails or the tape breaks, act—momentum does not reward patience.
Trade classification
Know the difference between a momentum play, a narrative play, and gambling.
Name the game before placing the trade. Different games demand different evidence, time horizons, and exits.
- MomentumPrice, volume, and relative strength are the edge. Use a defined trigger, stop, and short timebox.
- NarrativeA falsifiable thesis and dated catalyst are the edge. Size for uncertainty and exit when the evidence breaks.
- GamblingNo measurable edge, no invalidation, or risk sized around hope. If you cannot state what proves you wrong, do not call it a trade.
Tactical learnings
Small execution mistakes with expensive receipts.
Options · MDB
Make sure the contract reaches the catalyst.
MDB was moving our way, but the August 28 calls expired four days before September 1 earnings. Confirm the date at company IR, buy enough time past the event, and judge exits on executable quotes—not a flattering midpoint.
Read the trade learning →